The most incisive commentary we’ve seen to date on the most controversial gambling topic that has emerged in decades is posted on CDC Gaming. In the piece, titled “The wisdom of crowds and other expensive misconceptions,” long-time gaming-industry expert and consultant Andrew Tottenham argues that the claims these markets promulgate, that they aggregate the wisdom of crowds and produce more accurate forecasts than any individual expert can provide, are a leaky bucket at best and a downright fraud at worst. “The problem is that the product bears little resemblance to the pitch.” His thesis boils down to this: “A market valued for its ability to aggregate information creates, at sufficient scale, a financial incentive to corrupt the very information it is aggregating.” In other words, the “crowd” is “wise” until it gets too expensive for the biggest players to be truthful and trustworthy. You can digest all the evidential details here.
Source: Las Vegas News